A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."
